Short yields fall faster
Bull steepener
Policy pressure is easing and the curve is steepening. Credit often improves as the front end falls.
Often favorable: Bitcoin, technology, gold and cyclicals.
Experiments/Macro Weather
Experiment
Bull or bear describes the direction of yields. Steepener or flattener describes which end of the curve is moving faster.
Macro Weather begins with movement, not just the curve's shape. It compares the five-day move in the 2-year Treasury yield with the average move in the 10- and 30-year yields, then uses real rates, the dollar, liquidity and credit as context.
The four regimes are directional hypotheses—not forecasts. When either the broad rate move or the change in curve shape is too small, the dashboard says Neutral / Transitional instead of forcing a confident label.
Metadata / experiment file
| Status | live demo |
| Last updated | 2026-08-20 |
| Tags | macro, investing, public data, research tools |
Short yields fall faster
Policy pressure is easing and the curve is steepening. Credit often improves as the front end falls.
Often favorable: Bitcoin, technology, gold and cyclicals.
Long yields rise faster
Growth, inflation or term premium is pushing up long-end borrowing costs, often while credit remains healthy.
Cyclicals can hold up; duration-sensitive assets face pressure.
Long yields fall faster
Disinflation, slower growth or falling term premium is compressing the long end of the curve.
Bitcoin and gold may benefit; technology and cyclicals are mixed.
Short yields rise faster
Policy is becoming more restrictive and late-cycle pressure can build in credit and risk assets.
Bitcoin, technology and cyclicals usually face the strongest headwind.
Dashed lines show the conceptual starting curve; green lines show the resulting curve. The diagrams explain relative movement and are not plotted from today's values.